Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the AI industry but discusses varying perspectives on the economic potential and returns of generative AI technology [3][7]. Core Insights - The generative AI sector is projected to see over 1 trillion in AI infrastructure, including data centers and chips, but the current returns are minimal, primarily limited to efficiency gains [3][7]. - Experts express concerns about whether the high costs of AI technology can be justified, with some arguing that it is not designed to solve complex problems effectively [3][7]. Expert Opinions - Daron Acemoglu is skeptical about the transformative potential of AI, suggesting that significant advancements will not occur within the next decade and that the technology will primarily enhance existing processes rather than create new opportunities [7][10]. - Conversely, Goldman Sachs analysts remain optimistic, believing that the current capital expenditure cycle is more promising than previous ones, with potential for substantial long-term returns [3][7]. Constraints on Growth - The report highlights potential constraints on AI growth, particularly shortages in critical components like chips and power supply, which could hinder the technology's development and deployment [3][8]. - Analysts warn that the aging US power grid may not be prepared for the increased demand driven by AI technologies, leading to potential power shortages [8][18]. Market Implications - Despite skepticism about AI's fundamental story, there is an expectation that the AI theme will continue to attract investment, with infrastructure providers benefiting in the interim [8][18]. - The report suggests that only under the most favorable conditions, where AI significantly boosts growth without raising inflation, would long-term returns for the S&P 500 be above average [8][18].
GEN AI TOO MUCH SPEND, TOO LITTLE BENEFIT
Goldman Sachs·2024-06-24 16:00