黄金不可动摇的牛市

Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The bullish trend for gold remains evident, with a price adjustment forecasted to $2,700 per ounce by year-end, up from $2,300 per ounce previously[2] - Gold prices have increased by 20% over the past two months, despite strong economic growth and a record stock market[19] - The current macroeconomic policies and geopolitical factors continue to support gold prices, with emerging market central banks accelerating gold accumulation due to concerns over sanctions[4] Group 2: Risks and Potential Downturns - Four potential developments could suppress the upward trend of gold prices, including a peaceful resolution to geopolitical conflicts, which may limit central bank purchases[6] - Concerns over China's economic growth and real estate policies could reduce retail gold demand, impacting prices negatively[6] - A significant hawkish adjustment by the Federal Reserve leading to interest rate hikes could pose a substantial barrier to gold prices, potentially triggering ETF sell-offs[6] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Retail demand for gold in Asia, particularly China, is driven by concerns over economic stability and currency depreciation[4] - The ongoing geopolitical risks and fiscal sustainability concerns in the U.S. are emerging factors supporting structural fear in the gold market[26] - The decline in Western gold ETF holdings contrasts with the rising demand from emerging market central banks and retail investors in Asia[8]