德国激荡50年，日耳曼战车的荆棘之路

Economic Overview - Since the 1970s, Germany's GDP growth has declined from high single digits to below 5%, with an average growth rate of approximately 1.4% from the 1990s to present[63] - The "German disease" is characterized by high welfare, high labor costs, high national debt, high taxes, high unemployment, low investment rates, low growth, and structural issues[63] - Political cycles have influenced economic policies, with a gradual shift towards supply-side policies post-2003 reforms[65] Historical Economic Phases - 1973-1982: Peak of welfare state construction, GDP fell from 5% to nearly negative growth, with CPI fluctuating around 5% during oil crises[66][73] - 1983-1990: Market-oriented reforms led to a GDP growth recovery, averaging 2.9%[66] - 2003-2007: Structural reforms initiated a turnaround, with GDP growth stabilizing around 1.6%[66] Asset Performance - Over the past 50 years, German stocks have increased over 10 times, with significant contributions from financial and technology sectors during bull markets[2] - The German bond market has experienced a long bull run, primarily driven by monetary policy, with a 30-year bull market until the onset of the global pandemic[2] - The German housing market has shown steady growth post-2009, influenced by economic recovery and policy changes[2] Key Stock Performers - Notable companies reflecting Germany's industrial evolution include Hochtief (1970s), Allianz (1980s), SAP (1990s), Volkswagen (2000s), and Infineon (2010s)[3]