海外策略：衰退的判断依据与历史经验

Economic Indicators - July non-farm employment and ISM manufacturing PMI data significantly underperformed expectations, raising concerns about a potential U.S. recession and "hard landing" [2] - Non-farm employment increased by only 114,000 in July, well below the expected 175,000, contributing to a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3% [11] - Personal disposable income growth slowed from 4.0% at the beginning of the year to 3.6% in June, while personal consumption expenditure increased from 1.9% to 2.6% during the same period [3] Recession Assessment - Current economic conditions suggest a slowdown rather than a full-blown recession, as key indicators do not meet the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) criteria for recession [3] - Historical data shows that during past recessions, personal consumption expenditure typically turned negative, while the current trend remains stable [3] - The yield curve has been inverted for nearly two years, yet private sector credit has not significantly contracted, indicating a unique economic cycle [4] Market Reactions - Following the release of disappointing economic data, U.S. Treasury yields fell below 3.8%, and the S&P 500 experienced its largest single-day drop in two years [2] - The S&P 500's maximum drawdown during deep recessions averaged 44%, compared to 19% during mild slowdowns, highlighting the sensitivity of risk assets to recession severity [9] Future Outlook - The prevailing expectation is for a mild economic slowdown, with potential for the Federal Reserve to implement a 50 basis point rate cut in September [7] - Financial conditions are tightening, but the majority of pressures from monetary tightening, fiscal contraction, and high leverage are deemed manageable [7] - Risk assets may face short-term pressure, but opportunities for re-entry will arise as the market adjusts to the economic landscape [10]