迎驾贡酒：春节动销超预期，安徽返乡潮带动大众价格带爆发

Stock Data - Total shares outstanding: 800 million [1] - Total market capitalization: 44,552 million RMB [1] - 12-month high/low price: 82.99/48.26 RMB [1] Investment Rating - Rating: Buy/Maintain [2] - Target price: 71 RMB [2] - Last closing price: 55.69 RMB [2] Core Views - Yingjia Gongjiu's Spring Festival sales exceeded expectations, with double-digit growth in Dongcang sales [2] - Anhui's liquor market saw positive growth during the Spring Festival, with strong demand in the 100-200 RMB price range [2] - Yingjia's Dongcang series, particularly Dong 6 and Dong 9, benefited from the rising trend in the 100-200 RMB price segment [2] - Yingjia's inventory is healthy at 1.5-2 months, with accelerated repayment speed and improved channel profits [2] - Yingjia's performance in regions outside Hefei, such as Huainan, Huaibei, Tongling, and Anqing, has accelerated, with Dongcang showing promising growth in Jiangsu markets like Suzhou and Nanjing [2] Financial Projections - Revenue growth for 2023-2025 is projected at 23%/21%/20% [2] - Net profit growth for 2023-2025 is projected at 32%/26%/24% [2] - EPS for 2023-2025 is projected at 2.82/3.54/4.38 RMB [2] - PE ratios for 2023-2025 are 20x/16x/13x [2] Financial Data - Revenue for 2022A: 5,505 million RMB, with a growth rate of 19.59% [3] - Net profit for 2022A: 1,705 million RMB, with a growth rate of 22.97% [3] - EPS for 2022A: 2.13 RMB [3] - PE ratio for 2022A: 29.47 [3] Balance Sheet and Income Statement - Cash and cash equivalents for 2022A: 1,137 million RMB [4] - Inventory for 2022A: 4,010 million RMB [4] - Total assets for 2022A: 10,060 million RMB [4] - Revenue for 2022A: 5,505 million RMB [4] - Net profit for 2022A: 1,705 million RMB [4] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for 2022A: 68.02% [4] - Net profit margin for 2022A: 30.97% [4] - ROE for 2022A: 24.61% [4] - ROA for 2022A: 16.95% [4] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for 2022A: 1,840 million RMB [4] - Investing cash flow for 2022A: -767 million RMB [4] - Financing cash flow for 2022A: -724 million RMB [4] - Net increase in cash for 2022A: 348 million RMB [4] Valuation Metrics - PB ratio for 2022A: 7.25 [4] - PS ratio for 2022A: 9.12 [4] - EV/EBITDA ratio for 2022A: 20.32 [4]