Roborock(SH:688169)2024-02-20 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Beijing Roborock Tech is "OUTPERFORM" with a target price of RMB 477.5 [2][11]. Core Views - The robotic vacuum cleaner market is projected to exceed RMB 100 billion, with strong growth potential similar to that of white goods. Beijing Roborock Tech, as a global leader, is well-positioned to benefit from this growth [3][10]. - Overseas markets are experiencing both volume and price increases, with Chinese brands expanding their market share and upgrading product structures. Despite foreign brands like iRobot losing market share, they still hold significant presence, providing opportunities for Chinese brands to increase their share [3][10]. - In the domestic market, high-value products are gaining market share. In 2023, the sales volume of robotic vacuums in China is expected to grow by 4% year-on-year, with self-cleaning models continuing their rapid growth [3][11]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for Beijing Roborock Tech is expected to grow significantly, with projections of RMB 8,768 million in 2023, RMB 11,425 million in 2024, and RMB 13,830 million in 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 32.3%, 30.3%, and 21.1% respectively [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 16.35, RMB 19.10, and RMB 22.18 for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [4][11]. - The gross margin is expected to improve steadily, reaching 53.4% in 2023, 53.9% in 2024, and 54.2% in 2025 [4][8]. Market Position - Beijing Roborock Tech's market share in the domestic market is projected to increase by 3 percentage points to 24% in 2023, driven by high-quality and cost-effective products [3][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive advantage in both domestic and overseas markets, benefiting from ongoing channel expansion and product structure upgrades [3][10].