Leaderdrive(688017) 德邦证券·2024-02-19 16:00Investment Rating - Overweight (initiated) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of harmonic reducers, with a domestic market share of 24.7% in 2021, ranking second globally [2][13] - The company's revenue grew from RMB 176 million in 2017 to RMB 446 million in 2022, with a CAGR of 20.47%, and net profit grew from RMB 49 million to RMB 155 million, with a CAGR of 26.16% [2][12] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 98 million, RMB 166 million, and RMB 270 million in 2023-2025, with corresponding P/E ratios of 195x, 115x, and 71x [4] Company Overview - The company specializes in precision harmonic reducers, with its main downstream applications in industrial and service robots [2][12] - The company's core products include harmonic reducers, precision components, and integrated electromechanical products [2][12] - The company's revenue from industrial and service robot components reached RMB 361 million in 2022, accounting for 80.97% of total revenue [20] Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong R&D capability, with 121 domestic patents and 6 international patents as of H1 2023 [3][28] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with an expected harmonic reducer production capacity of 1.59 million units by 2027 [3][32] - The company has established a strong brand presence, supplying to major domestic and international robot manufacturers such as Estun, Efort, and Universal Robots [3][38] Industry Outlook - The industrial robot market in China is growing rapidly, with installations increasing from 156,000 units in 2017 to 290,000 units in 2022, a CAGR of 13.20% [12][44] - The domestic market share of industrial robots in China reached 43.7% in H1 2023, up 7.7% YoY, driven by policy support and emerging industries such as lithium batteries and photovoltaics [47][48] - The market size of harmonic reducers for robots in China is expected to reach RMB 3 billion by 2025, accounting for 60% of the global market [49][50] Humanoid Robots - Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to use harmonic reducers in its rotating actuators, with 14 rotating actuators per robot [54][56] - The development of humanoid robots is expected to significantly increase the demand for harmonic reducers, with Tesla aiming to produce millions of Optimus robots in the future [53][54] Non-Robot Applications - The company is expanding the application of harmonic reducers in non-robot fields such as precision CNC machine tools, precision laser processing equipment, and medical devices [57][58] - The company is developing new harmonic reducers with higher precision and load capacity to meet the demands of these emerging applications [58]