Guoxin Securities·2024-02-20 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][24]. Core Views - The report indicates that oil prices are expected to remain in a high range in 2024, with upstream oil and gas exploration maintaining high prosperity. The Brent oil price is projected to stay between $80 and $90 per barrel due to tight supply and demand dynamics [4][7][26]. - The company has significant overseas oil and gas resources, with the Guyana project progressing beyond expectations. The Stabroek block in Guyana has proven reserves exceeding 11 billion barrels, with the company holding a 25% stake [5][28]. - The capital expenditure budget for 2024 is stable, with several new projects planned for production within the year, including key projects in China and Brazil, expected to reach a peak production of 364,300 barrels of oil equivalent per day [23][24][28]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Outlook - As of February 20, WTI crude oil futures settled at $77.04 per barrel, up 4.4% from the beginning of the month, while Brent crude oil futures settled at $82.34 per barrel, up 4.6% [2][4]. - The report cites geopolitical tensions and strong economic data from the U.S. and China as factors contributing to the optimistic market sentiment and tight supply-demand balance for oil [4][7]. Company Performance and Projects - The company's net production from overseas oil and gas is approximately 30%, expected to increase to 35%. The core incremental production in recent years has come from new projects in Guyana and Brazil [5][28]. - The Payara project in the Stabroek block commenced production ahead of schedule in November 2023, achieving a production capacity of 220,000 barrels per day by January 2024, with total production from three platforms reaching 645,000 barrels per day, significantly above the design capacity of 580,000 barrels per day [5][11][29]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts a capital expenditure of RMB 125 billion to 135 billion for 2024, with net production expected to be between 720 million to 750 million barrels of oil equivalent [8][23]. - The projected net profits for 2023-2025 are RMB 134.9 billion, 154.5 billion, and 178.3 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.84, 3.25, and 3.75 yuan, maintaining a "Buy" rating [24][28].