Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry has recently seen a concentrated release of annual performance forecasts, with 27 companies reporting. Among these, 17 companies expect profit increases or continued profitability, while 10 anticipate declines or losses. The upstream sectors, including silicon materials and battery cells, are experiencing significant price drops, leading to reduced profitability, while the inverter and module sectors are performing relatively well [1][2]. - The report anticipates a challenging competitive environment for the photovoltaic industry in 2024, with expectations of further declines in profitability for integrated module companies in Q1 due to price drops from Q4. However, a recovery in demand is expected post-Chinese New Year, potentially leading to a bottoming out of profitability in Q1 and a rebound in Q2 [2]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - In Q4, many photovoltaic companies reported significant declines in profits, with TCL Zhonghuan expected to incur a loss of 1.388 to 1.988 billion yuan, Trina Solar's net profit expected to drop by 51% to 87%, and JinkoSolar's net profit expected to decrease by 36% to 64% [1]. Investment Strategy - Despite intensified competition, global photovoltaic installations are expected to continue growing. The report suggests focusing on three main lines: 1) auxiliary material sectors with less impact from industry chain dynamics, such as Tongling Co., 2) integrated module leaders with stable cash flow, and 3) the energy storage PCS sector, particularly leading companies like Sungrow Power Supply and Hemaik Co. [2]. Key Company Ratings - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with recommendations for Tongling Co., Sungrow Power Supply, and Hemaik Co. all rated as "Recommended" [6].
光伏行业23年年度业绩预告点评:业绩预告出炉,多数光伏企业Q4利润环比下滑
Dongxing Securities·2024-02-21 16:00