2024年春运数据点评：出行人次创新高，国内游和出境游带动航空出行量价齐升

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The expected number of travelers during the 2024 Spring Festival is projected to reach 9 billion, marking a historical high, with significant growth in self-driving trips reflecting a structural adjustment in travel methods [3][4] - The average economy class ticket price for civil aviation during the Spring Festival is expected to be 1,011 yuan, an increase of 16.0% compared to 2019 and 19.5% compared to 2023 [4][21] - The Spring Festival period (January 26 to March 5, 2024) is anticipated to see a total of 90 billion trips, with 18 billion being commercial passenger transport and 72 billion being self-driving trips, indicating a shift in travel structure [3][4] Summary by Sections 1. Historical High in Spring Festival Travel - The number of travelers during the 2024 Spring Festival is expected to reach 9 billion, a 90.15% increase from 2023 and a 202.01% increase from 2019 [4] - The railway passenger volume is projected to be 480 million, a 37.9% increase from 2023 and an 18% increase from 2019 [4] - Civil aviation passenger transport is expected to exceed 80 million, a 44.9% increase from 2023 and a 9.8% increase from 2019 [4] 2. Spring Festival "Second Trip" Boosts Consumption - The total number of cross-regional travelers during the Spring Festival holiday reached 2.311 billion, a historical high [12] - Domestic tourism during the 8-day holiday is expected to reach 474 million trips, a 34.3% increase year-on-year and a 19.0% increase compared to 2019 [12] - Total domestic tourism expenditure is projected to be 632.687 billion yuan, a 47.3% increase year-on-year and a 7.7% increase compared to 2019 [12] 3. Aviation Travel: Domestic and International Tourism Driving Ticket Volume and Price Increase - The total number of civil aviation flights during the Spring Festival is expected to reach 128,000, with an average of 16,000 flights per day, marking a historical high [17] - The average ticket price for economy class during the Spring Festival is projected to be 1,011 yuan, reflecting a significant increase due to high demand [21] - The growth in international flights and the increase in travel demand are expected to further boost ticket prices [21] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the rapid growth in travel numbers during the Spring Festival, driven by "visiting relatives + tourism," will enhance airline ticket prices [22] - Recommended stocks include Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, Shanghai Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, and Shenzhen Airport [22]