Minsheng Securities·2024-02-13 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GAC Group (601238.SH) with a current price of 8.63 CNY [1] Core Views - GAC Group's January 2024 wholesale vehicle sales were 132,000 units, down 10.2% year-on-year and down 49.1% month-on-month. GAC Honda and GAC Toyota saw declines in sales, while GAC Aion and GAC Trumpchi performed well in the new energy vehicle segment [1] - GAC Group's strategy focuses on high-value flagship products to maintain sales amid rising competition from domestic brands. The introduction of the ninth-generation Camry has already garnered over 5,000 pre-orders [1] - The company's internationalization strategy is accelerating, with a global R&D network established across multiple regions, which is expected to provide new growth opportunities in 2024 [1] - The report projects revenue for 2023-2025 to be 130.3 billion, 156.9 billion, and 183.3 billion CNY, respectively, with net profit estimates of 6.58 billion, 7.72 billion, and 8.24 billion CNY [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue and profit forecasts for GAC Group are as follows: - 2022A: Revenue 110,006 million CNY, Net Profit 8,068 million CNY - 2023E: Revenue 130,302 million CNY, Net Profit 6,577 million CNY - 2024E: Revenue 156,939 million CNY, Net Profit 7,719 million CNY - 2025E: Revenue 183,334 million CNY, Net Profit 8,239 million CNY [5] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 45.4% for 2022, 18.4% for 2023, 20.4% for 2024, and 16.8% for 2025 [5] Valuation Metrics - The report provides the following valuation metrics: - PE ratios are projected at 11 for 2022, 14 for 2023, 12 for 2024, and 11 for 2025 - PB ratios are projected at 0.80 for 2022, 0.76 for 2023, 0.71 for 2024, and 0.67 for 2025 [5]