证券行业月度点评：营业务低基数效应下，部分券商2023年业绩高增

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "In line with the market" [1] Core Viewpoints - The securities industry outperformed the market in January, ranking 8th among 31 Shenwan industry indices, with a decline of 5.42% [5][7] - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: leading firms, financial technology, and mergers and acquisitions [6][27] - The report highlights that the performance of listed securities firms showed divergence, with some firms experiencing significant growth due to low base effects in proprietary trading [6][27] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In January, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 6.27%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 6.29%, while the Shenwan Securities Index decreased by 5.42%, outperforming both indices by 0.85 and 0.87 percentage points respectively [7][9] - The median decline for listed securities firms in January was -5.81% [9] Valuation and Earnings - As of February 6, the median PB valuation for listed securities firms was 1.15 times, down by 0.02 times from the end of December [6][10] - Among 33 firms that released earnings forecasts, 23 reported positive growth, while 10 experienced declines [6][27] - Notable growth was observed in firms like Hongta Securities (+711%) and Northeast Securities (+182%) [27] Regulatory Environment - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has strengthened regulation on securities lending, including a complete suspension of the lending of restricted shares [30] - The CSRC emphasized the need for a fair market and plans to enhance the registration system for stock issuance in 2024 [27][34] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality leading securities firms, firms empowered by financial technology, and those involved in mergers and acquisitions [6][27] - Specific stocks to watch include CITIC Securities (600030.SH), Huatai Securities (601688.SH), Guolian Securities (601456.SH), and Zheshang Securities (601878.SH) [6][27]