银行行业1月社融金融数据点评：信贷实现开门红，居民端表现亮眼

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive/Maintain" as of February 20, 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that credit growth has started strong in January, with significant performance in the residential sector. The total social financing (TSF) increased by 6.5 trillion yuan in January, which is 506.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate of TSF stock was 9.5% [1][6] - The report emphasizes that the structure of credit growth is favorable, with a notable increase in medium to long-term loans, which accounted for 80% of new RMB loans in January [2][6] - The report suggests that the ongoing policy support for economic growth and the relaxation of real estate financing policies could lead to a recovery in the sector's valuations [6] Summary by Sections Social Financing Data - As of the end of January, the TSF stock increased by 9.5% year-on-year, with a new addition of 6.5 trillion yuan, which is 506.1 billion yuan more than last year. The new RMB loans amounted to 4.84 trillion yuan, which is 913 billion yuan less than the previous year [1][10] - The report notes that off-balance-sheet financing added 600.8 billion yuan, with a significant increase in discounted bills and trust loans, while government bond net financing decreased [1][2] Credit Structure - The report indicates that the credit structure is improving, with new RMB loans of 4.92 trillion yuan in January, which is an increase of 200 billion yuan year-on-year. The residential loans saw a significant increase, particularly in short-term and medium to long-term loans [2][6] - Corporate loans decreased by 820 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in bill financing, but short-term and medium to long-term loans remained stable [2][6] Monetary Supply - The report states that M2 and M1 increased by 8.7% and 5.9% year-on-year, respectively, with M1 growth rebounding due to the effects of the Spring Festival [2][10] - The report highlights that the growth of M2-M1 spread has narrowed, indicating improved liquidity in the market [2][6] Future Industry Events - The report mentions that significant industry events to watch for in the next 3-6 months include the release of the official PMI data at the end of February [3]