TASLY(SH:600535) Minsheng Securities·2024-02-05 16:00Investment Rating - The report gives a "Cautious Recommend" rating for the company, considering its future growth potential and current valuation levels [2][3] Core Views - The company has optimized its business structure, focusing on the pharmaceutical industry, with steady improvement in profitability [1] - The company's core product, Compound Danshen Dripping Pills, has achieved milestone breakthroughs in internationalization and expanded its indications, enhancing its market competitiveness [1][2] - The company has a rich R&D pipeline with 92 products under development, including 41 Class 1 innovative drugs, and 39 of them have entered clinical trials [1][3] Business Structure and Profitability - The company's total operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2023 reached 6.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.15% [1] - The pharmaceutical industry segment is expected to drive new performance growth [1] Modern Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) - The company has built a modern TCM system centered on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular drugs, with Compound Danshen Dripping Pills as the core product [1][8] - Compound Danshen Dripping Pills has completed international multicenter randomized double-blind Phase II and III clinical trials in 127 clinical research centers across 9 countries and regions [1] - The product has expanded its indications to include diabetic retinopathy, further enhancing its market competitiveness [1] R&D and Innovation - The company follows a "four-in-one" R&D model, including independent R&D, product introduction, cooperative R&D, and investment in market licensing priorities [1] - The company has 92 products in its R&D pipeline, with 41 Class 1 innovative drugs and 39 products in clinical trials [1][3] - Key products like Compound Danshen Dripping Pills and Yangxue Qingnao Granules/Pills are undergoing clinical trials for new indications, such as chronic stable angina and Alzheimer's disease [1][6] Financial Projections - The company's operating revenue is expected to reach 9.18 billion yuan, 10.01 billion yuan, and 10.85 billion yuan in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 1.25 billion yuan, 1.41 billion yuan, and 1.61 billion yuan for the same period [2] - The current PE ratios are 16x, 15x, and 13x for 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, which are in line with the industry average [2][3] Market Position and Product Performance - Compound Danshen Dripping Pills ranks first in the domestic market for cardiovascular TCM, with a market share of 9.56% in 2022 [1][34] - Yangxue Qingnao Granules/Pills lead the anti-migraine TCM market, with a market share of over 10% in the neurological TCM market [42] - Qishen Yiqi Dripping Pills and Yiqifumai Injection have shown significant growth, with Qishen Yiqi Dripping Pills achieving a CAGR of 11.39% from 2015 to 2022 [46][49] Biopharmaceuticals and Chemical Drugs - The company's biopharmaceutical segment includes the exclusive product Prourokinase (Pukang), which has entered multiple treatment guidelines and is undergoing Phase III clinical trials for new indications like acute ischemic stroke [52][53] - In the chemical drug segment, products like Temozolomide Capsules (Diqing) and Silymarin Capsules (Shuilinjia) have seen significant sales growth, despite price reductions due to centralized procurement [55][56]