CIMC(SZ:000039) Guoxin Securities·2024-02-04 16:00Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][3]. Core Views - The company expects a significant decline in net profit for 2023, projecting a year-on-year drop of 92%-88%, with estimated net profit between 250-375 million yuan [2][3]. - The logistics and energy equipment sectors are identified as core growth areas, with container manufacturing and marine engineering being the primary drivers [2][19]. - The container manufacturing business is anticipated to stabilize and recover to normal levels between 2024 and 2025, following a significant downturn in 2023 [2][31]. - The marine engineering sector is experiencing a favorable market environment, with a substantial backlog of orders and expected high growth in revenue [19][36]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The projected net profits for the company from 2023 to 2025 are 294 million, 2.515 billion, and 3.575 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 150, 18, and 12 [3][4]. - The estimated reasonable valuation for the stock is between 9.32 and 9.79 yuan, based on a 2024 PE of 20-21x [3][6]. Business Segments - Container Manufacturing: The company maintains a global market share of over 40% in container manufacturing, with a significant recovery expected in 2024 as the industry stabilizes [2][15]. - Marine Engineering: The company has a robust order book valued at 5.2 billion USD, reflecting a 38% year-on-year increase, driven by a favorable market for oil and gas projects [19][36]. - Road Transport Vehicles: The company is a leading manufacturer of semi-trailers, with a focus on expanding its presence in North America and Europe [17][39]. Market Environment - The global container shipping market is projected to reach 25 billion USD in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [29]. - The marine engineering market is benefiting from high oil prices and increased activity in offshore operations, leading to improved utilization rates and rental prices for marine equipment [36][19].