铜春节事项一览：LME铜价及海外铜股上行，全球扰动持续

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - During the Spring Festival, copper prices showed a significant increase, with LME copper rising by 1.5% and COMEX copper increasing by 3.7% [4][12] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a cooling of U.S. interest rate cut expectations while the EU has raised its rate cut expectations [5][10] - The supply side is experiencing disruptions, with notable incidents affecting copper production, including environmental controversies and operational halts due to accidents [6][15] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report highlights that copper has been among the top performers in the non-ferrous metals sector during the Spring Festival, with most overseas copper company stocks also showing an upward trend [4][7] Macroeconomic Factors - U.S. inflation data exceeded expectations, with January CPI at 3.1% and PPI at 0.9%, leading to a decrease in the probability of a March rate cut to 10% [5][10] - The EU has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2024 down from 1.2% to 0.8% and adjusted inflation expectations from 3.2% to 2.7% [5][12] Supply and Inventory Changes - There has been a continuous reduction in overseas copper inventories, with LME and COMEX copper stocks decreasing by 0.5 million tons to 153,000 tons during the Spring Festival [6][16] - Environmental issues have arisen, particularly concerning the water management practices at major copper mines, which could impact production [15][16] Price Outlook - The report suggests that copper prices may exhibit a "V" shaped recovery during the interest rate cut cycle, with historical trends indicating potential price rebounds post-rate cuts [6][10] Company Performance - The report includes a table of stock price changes for major copper companies, with notable increases such as Antofagasta's stock rising by 8% during the period [9]