szclou(SZ:002121) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-02-04 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of 480 to 620 million yuan for 2023, a year-on-year decline of 512.3% to 374.0%. The non-recurring net profit is projected to be a loss of 280 to 380 million yuan, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [2][4] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased service fees for energy storage products, higher depreciation expenses, a significant drop in investment income, and increased non-operating expenses due to contract delivery issues [3][4] - Despite the projected losses, the company has seen an increase in overseas orders and expects improvement in the future, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [4] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 4,425 million yuan in 2023 to 5,582 million yuan in 2024, and further to 6,815 million yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 25% and 26% respectively [11] - The net profit forecast for 2023 is a loss of 557 million yuan, with a recovery expected in 2024 with a profit of 108 million yuan and further growth to 307 million yuan in 2025 [11] - The company's cash flow from operating activities is expected to be negative in 2023 at -183 million yuan, with a recovery to 405 million yuan in 2024 and 665 million yuan in 2025 [11] Order and Capacity Expansion - Since Q4 2023, the company has secured over 900 MWh of new energy storage orders, with ongoing capacity expansion projects [13] - The company plans to invest up to 950 million yuan in a production base in the Pearl River Delta, which is expected to achieve a battery energy storage system (BESS) capacity of 14 GWh and a power conversion system (PCS) capacity of 5 GW [13]