HIKVISION(SZ:002415) Guoxin Securities·2024-02-03 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hikvision (002415.SZ) is "Buy" [1][4]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its operations, with a quarter-over-quarter net profit growth of 50% in Q4 2023, reaching 52.7 billion yuan, and a year-over-year increase of 31.8% [1]. - The revenue for 2023 is projected to be 893.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 7.44% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of its PBG business and the support of its "Guanlan" large model, which is anticipated to drive long-term growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 280.8 billion yuan, marking a year-over-year increase of 19.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 18.4% [1]. - The annual revenue growth rate for 2023 shows a sequential improvement: -1.9%, +3.1%, +5.5%, +19.8% [1]. - The profit margin is expected to improve, with net profit for 2023 estimated at 141.2 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9.96% [1][2]. Business Segment Insights - The EBG (Enterprise Business Group) has become a significant growth driver, contributing nearly 45% to domestic revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 [1]. - The SMBG (Small and Medium Business Group) has shown recovery, with revenue growth turning positive in Q3 2023 after a decline in the first half of the year [1]. - The overseas business has also seen growth across most countries in the first three quarters of 2023, indicating an improving business structure [1]. Shareholder Confidence - The controlling shareholder, China Electronics Technology Group, has increased its stake in the company, demonstrating confidence in its long-term development [1]. - The company has revised its profit forecasts for 2023-2025, with expected net profits of 141.2 billion yuan, 168.7 billion yuan, and 194.5 billion yuan respectively [1][2].