有色金属行业周报：稀土指标增速放缓，供需有所改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024 is expected to increase by 13% year-on-year, while the Wa State plans to impose a 30% physical tax on tin concentrate [2]. - Yabao anticipates a 10-20% year-on-year growth in lithium product sales for 2024 [2]. - The report recommends maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry, particularly for rare earth permanent magnets, antimony, and tin sectors due to their strategic importance and potential for growth in various applications such as robotics and electric vehicles [2]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The report notes a mixed performance in energy metal prices before the holiday, with the main contract for LC2407 down by 4.08% [2]. - The domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate price remained stable at 97,000 CNY/ton, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide also held steady [8][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The first batch of rare earth mining total control indicators for 2024 is set at 135,000 tons REO, reflecting a 13% increase year-on-year [3]. - Antimony prices remained stable due to tight raw material supply, with domestic antimony concentrate priced at 75,000 CNY/ton [3]. - Tin prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions and recovering semiconductor demand, with LME tin closing at 27,000 USD/ton, up 2.40% [3]. Industry Trends - The photovoltaic sector saw a significant increase in installed capacity, with December 2023 installations reaching 53 GW, a 144.24% year-on-year increase [13]. - In January 2024, domestic sales of new energy vehicles reached 787,000 units, marking an 85.3% year-on-year growth [15]. - The production of battery materials showed a positive trend, with January 2024 production of cathode materials at 202,000 tons, a 6.32% month-on-month increase [26]. Lithium Market Insights - The lithium market is experiencing price stability, with the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 97,000 CNY/ton [35]. - The report highlights a decrease in lithium production due to seasonal factors, with an estimated output of 6,945 tons in the last week before the holiday, down 20.46% from the previous week [35]. Rare Earth Market Insights - The report indicates that the supply growth rate for rare earths has slowed, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2024 reflecting a more cautious approach compared to previous years [3]. - The prices for rare earths remained stable, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide holding steady at 399,000 CNY/ton [10].