农业周观点：春节期间行情变化支持养殖链催化

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [10][53]. Core Insights - During the Spring Festival, pig prices remained low, which is expected to continue driving industry capacity reduction. The price of piglets has risen significantly, and the overall supply-demand situation remains loose. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in large-scale farming, such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][10]. - The price of broiler chicks has shown strength, with a significant increase compared to earlier in the year. The report anticipates continued strong performance in the white chicken sector due to upstream breeding disruptions and efficiency factors [6][10]. - The prices of major feed raw materials have continued to decline, improving profit expectations for the feed sector. The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the feed industry due to easing cost pressures [6][10]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - In January 2024, the total sales volume of pigs from ten listed companies was 7.1157 million heads, a slight decrease of 0.71% month-on-month. The average price of pigs was 14.27 yuan/kg, down 0.49% from the previous month [7][8]. - The report indicates that the industry is experiencing ongoing losses, with self-breeding and purchased pig farming profits at -108.15 yuan/head and 34.62 yuan/head, respectively [7][10]. Broiler Industry - The price of broiler chicks reached 5.4 yuan each as of February 17, 2024, a 145.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The report suggests that the white chicken sector is likely to see continued strong performance [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on integrated companies in the white feather broiler industry, such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biotechnology [6][10]. Feed Industry - The USDA's February report indicated a global increase in soybean and corn inventories, leading to a decline in feed raw material prices. As of February 15, 2024, the closing price for soybean meal was 333.2 cents/bushel, down 4.0% from the previous week [6][10]. - The report suggests that the feed sector's profitability is expected to improve due to the downward trend in raw material prices, recommending attention to leading feed companies like Haida Group [6][10]. Industry Trends - The report notes that the overall livestock industry is under pressure, with ongoing capacity reduction expected. It highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly for companies with clear cost advantages [10][19]. - The report also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on global grain supply and demand, emphasizing the need for attention to agricultural technology advancements and the potential for domestic seed industry growth [11][19].