社会服务行业周报：春运多重客流叠加，有望释放文旅消费活力

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the social services industry [4] Core Viewpoints - Domestic travel is expected to see a boost in cultural and tourism consumption due to the Spring Festival travel rush, with an estimated 480 million passengers expected to travel by rail during the 40-day period, representing a 37.9% increase compared to the previous year [2][11] - International travel is set to benefit from favorable policies, such as the recent visa exemption agreement between China and Thailand, which is expected to enhance the outbound tourism industry [12][32] - The overall travel industry is anticipated to recover, with a focus on domestic and international travel markets [3][12] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints of the Week - Domestic travel is projected to thrive during the Spring Festival, with significant increases in travel volume and hotel bookings compared to previous years [11] - International travel is expected to recover rapidly, supported by new visa agreements and increased travel demand [12][32] 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1. Market Performance - The social services sector saw a decline of 15.08%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.45 percentage points, ranking 30th among 31 sectors [2][13] - All four sub-sectors (tourism and scenic spots, professional services, education, and hotel catering) experienced declines, with the largest drop in education at 18.11% [13] 2.2. Individual Stock Performance - Among 76 companies in the A-share retail sector, only 2 stocks increased in value, while 74 stocks saw declines [16] 3. Industry Tracking 3.1. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in December reached 43,550 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, with significant growth in dining revenue [18][26] - Online retail sales continued to grow, with a 7.98% increase in December [20] 3.2. Industry News - Major adjustments in Meituan's organizational structure to focus on local business and internationalization [27] - Shanghai launched over 200 cultural and tourism activities to enhance urban festive atmosphere [28]