TRIP.COM(09961) 国信证券·2024-02-22 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5][10] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong financial performance in 2023, with a significant increase in revenue and profits compared to 2019 levels. The total revenue reached 44.51 billion RMB, and the net profit was 9.918 billion RMB, marking increases of 25% and 41% respectively [6][9] - The company's Non-GAAP net profit doubled compared to 2019, achieving a record high net profit margin of 29%, which is an increase of 11 percentage points from 2019 [6][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of outbound tourism, with significant growth in domestic travel bookings during the upcoming Spring Festival [9][10] Financial Forecasts and Key Metrics - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: 52.861 billion RMB (up 18.8% from 2023) - 2025E: 61.373 billion RMB (up 16.1% from 2024) - 2026E: 70.146 billion RMB (up 14.3% from 2025) [3][11] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024E: 11.226 billion RMB (up 13.2% from 2023) - 2025E: 13.487 billion RMB (up 20.1% from 2024) - 2026E: 15.838 billion RMB (up 17.4% from 2025) [3][11] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024E: 16.42 RMB - 2025E: 19.73 RMB - 2026E: 23.17 RMB [3][11] Market Trends and Business Performance - The company's core platform GMV surpassed 1.1 trillion RMB, reflecting a 30% increase compared to 2019, indicating improved operational efficiency [6][9] - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 10.3 billion RMB, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 2.7 billion RMB, showcasing strong performance despite challenges in the outbound travel sector [6][9] - The recovery in outbound tourism is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with bookings for outbound flights and hotels during the Spring Festival surpassing 2019 levels [9][10]