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ARK’s Expected Value For Tesla In 2029: $2,600 Per Share
TSLATesla(TSLA) ARK Invest·2024-06-11 16:01

Investment Rating - ARK's expected value for Tesla in 2029 is 2,600pershare,withabullcaseof2,600 per share, with a bull case of 3,100 and a bear case of 2,000[11][12]CoreThesis−ARKbelievesTesla′srobotaxibusinesswilldrivenearly902,000 [11][12] Core Thesis - ARK believes Tesla's robotaxi business will drive nearly 90% of its enterprise value and earnings by 2029, with electric vehicles contributing approximately 25% of total sales and -10% of earnings potential [13] - The robotaxi business is expected to have significantly higher margins compared to the electric vehicle segment [13] Business Line Breakdown - Revenue by business line in the expected value case: Electric Vehicles, Robotaxi, Human Driven Ride-hail, Insurance, Stationary Energy Storage [14] - EBITDA by business line in the expected value case: Electric Vehicles, Robotaxi, Human Driven Ride-hail, Insurance, Stationary Energy Storage [14] Example Bear and Bull Outcomes - Example bear outcome for 2029: 14.4 million cars sold, 250 billion electric vehicle revenue, 603billionautonomousride−hailrevenue,56603 billion autonomous ride-hail revenue, 56% total gross margin, 32% total EBITDA margin, 7,000 billion market cap, 2,000shareprice[16]−Examplebulloutcomefor2029:14.4millioncarssold,2,000 share price [16] - Example bull outcome for 2029: 14.4 million cars sold, 394 billion electric vehicle revenue, 951billionautonomousride−hailrevenue,53951 billion autonomous ride-hail revenue, 53% total gross margin, 32% total EBITDA margin, 10,900 billion market cap, $3,100 share price [16] Updates to ARK's 2023 Tesla Model - Updated autonomous driving assumptions: ARK expects Tesla to launch a robotaxi service within the next two years, with a minimal probability of failure within five years [18] - Updated Tesla manufacturing growth rate: Vehicle production is expected to increase by 45% annually through 2029, scaling from 1.8 million units per year to 6-16 million units per year [23] Business Opportunities Not Included in the Model - Tesla Semi: Not expected to contribute significantly to Tesla's value within the five-year investment horizon [27] - Supercharging Network: Unlikely to generate significant revenue compared to the robotaxi business [27] - FSD Licensing: Discussions with one automaker are ongoing, but significant revenue impact is not expected within five years [27][28] - AI-As-A-Service: Distributed AI-inference-as-a-service and Dojo training-as-a-service are likely outside the five-year investment horizon [29] Risks and Limits of the Monte Carlo Model - ARK's model includes 45 independent variables covering plausible outcomes for Tesla over the next five years, but unexpected events could significantly alter these outcomes [30]