2024年2月MLF操作点评：2月MLF操作利率不变，降息仍在政策工具箱内

Monetary Policy Insights - The MLF operation scale in February was 500 billion, with an MLF maturity amount of 499 billion, indicating a slight increase in operations[2] - The MLF interest rate remained unchanged at 2.50%, consistent with the previous period, reflecting a cautious approach amid recent monetary policy adjustments[8] - The recent reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut is expected to release over 1 trillion in funds, supporting credit growth and government bond issuance[2] Economic Indicators - The CPI in February showed a year-on-year decline of 0.8%, with a widening drop of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking four consecutive months of negative growth[9] - The PPI also declined by 2.5% year-on-year, although the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing deflationary pressures in industrial prices[9] Future Projections - There is a significant likelihood of MLF interest rate cuts in the short term, which would signal proactive growth policies and potentially lower financing costs for the real economy[5] - The anticipated adjustments in LPR rates, with a possible reduction of 5 basis points for both 1-year and 5-year terms, could further ease borrowing costs for businesses and households[4] - The need for macroeconomic policy adjustments is heightened due to the ongoing contraction in manufacturing PMI, which has remained in the contraction zone for over three months[4]