宏观观察2024年第12期（总第523期）：中国经济“通缩”之辩＊

Group 1: Economic Analysis - The current decline in Chinese prices is considered temporary and structural, with a stable overall economic operation and no strict definition of deflation present[8] - Historical instances of deflation in China have been met with timely government responses, effectively stabilizing prices and promoting economic growth[10] - In 2023, China's GDP growth was 5.2%, indicating a stable macroeconomic recovery despite price declines[58] Group 2: Challenges and Concerns - Key issues include insufficient demand, weak market confidence, overcapacity in certain industries, and obstacles in monetary policy transmission[8] - The consumer price index (CPI) for 2023 showed a slight increase of 0.2%, suggesting that the price drop is not indicative of widespread deflation[34] - The real estate market's downturn has significantly impacted related consumption, with real estate investments declining by 10% and 9.6% in 2022 and 2023, respectively[51] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - It is recommended to enhance short-term growth policies while promoting long-term reforms to stimulate economic recovery[55] - The government should focus on increasing fiscal space and optimizing fiscal expenditure towards social welfare and innovation[61] - Maintaining a stable and consistent policy environment is crucial to bolster market confidence and prevent negative feedback loops in expectations and wages[64]