2024年1月物价数据点评：春节错月导致1月CPI同比降幅扩大，2月有望转正

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January, the CPI year-on-year decline expanded to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The significant drop in food prices contributed to the CPI decline, with vegetable prices falling by 13.2 percentage points year-on-year and fruit prices declining by 8.8 percentage points[19] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, maintained a stable positive growth of 0.4% year-on-year, indicating no deflationary trend despite four consecutive months of negative overall CPI growth[8] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year decline was recorded at -2.5% in January, a narrowing of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[16] - The PPI continued to show a month-on-month decline of 0.2%, marking the third consecutive month of such a trend[23] - Weak domestic demand and low prices for major commodities like steel, cement, and coal contributed to the ongoing PPI decline[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - February is expected to see a reversal of the Spring Festival effect, with CPI projected to recover to a growth rate of around 0.6%[17] - The annual CPI average is anticipated to rise from 0.2% in 2023 to approximately 1.3% in 2024, reducing deflation risks[17] - The PPI is expected to stabilize and potentially turn positive around mid-2024, driven by recovering international oil prices and improved domestic real estate investment[24]