大类资产每周观察

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The US January CPI recorded 3.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.9%, while the core CPI was 3.9%, above the expected 3.7%[28] - The US PPI also outperformed expectations, leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields and pressure on risk asset prices[8] - China's January social financing and credit data showed strong performance, indicating potential marginal improvement in the economy[8] Group 2: Market Trends - Domestic stock markets have rebounded, with A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading gains, while gold prices have declined[9] - The risk premium for equities over bonds recorded 4.13%, down 0.3% from the previous week, indicating a decrease in risk appetite[38] - The 10-year US Treasury yield increased by 27 basis points, reflecting rising inflation expectations and a tightening financial condition[58] Group 3: Policy and Strategy - The upcoming release of the US Federal Reserve's January monetary policy meeting minutes is anticipated to provide guidance on interest rate expectations amid strong economic data[8] - There is a focus on whether China will lower the LPR loan rate this week to stimulate the economy further[68] - The report suggests a strategy of reallocating risk assets (stocks) and shorting safe-haven assets (government bonds) in the current market environment[31]