Guoxin Securities·2024-02-24 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [4][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that crude oil prices have been on the rise, with WTI crude futures settling at $77.91 per barrel and Brent crude at $83.03 per barrel as of February 21, reflecting a 5.5% increase since the beginning of the month [4]. - The company is actively implementing market capitalization management, incorporating market performance into the annual performance evaluation of management [4][18]. - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain in a mid-to-high range throughout 2024, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong economic data from the U.S., alongside stimulus measures in China [5][11]. - Global natural gas demand is expected to continue growing, with a significant drop in overseas natural gas prices, which will likely improve the company's import costs [6][12]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Outlook - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will maintain a high range of $80-90 per barrel in 2024, supported by tight supply and demand dynamics [5][11]. - According to OPEC, IEA, and EIA reports, the projected global oil demand for 2024 is 104.40, 103.00, and 102.42 million barrels per day, showing increases compared to previous forecasts [5][11]. Natural Gas Market - The global LNG demand is expected to peak after 2040, with a projected increase of over 50% by then, primarily driven by China [6][12]. - As of February 21, the Northeast Asia LNG price was $8.20 per million British thermal units, down by $1.51 (-15.5%) from the beginning of the month, indicating a favorable trend for import costs [6][13]. Corporate Management and Performance - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) is promoting high-quality development among central enterprises, focusing on stable profit growth and optimization of key performance indicators [7][16]. - The company has integrated market capitalization performance into management's annual performance evaluation, emphasizing the importance of market image and capital operation performance [4][18]. Financial Projections - The report maintains profit forecasts for the company at 170.7 billion, 205 billion, and 239 billion yuan for 2023-2025, with corresponding EPS of 0.93, 1.12, and 1.31 yuan, and PE ratios of 9.9, 8.2, and 7.1 times [8][19].