大类资产每周观察

Economic Overview - In January, the US CPI recorded 3.1%, exceeding the market expectation of 2.9%, while the core CPI was at 3.9%, above the expected 3.7%[48] - The market's expectation for a rate cut in March has dropped to 10%, with the earliest anticipated cut now in June, reducing the total expected cuts for the year to four, with a cumulative reduction of approximately 1%[51] Market Performance - Major asset performance last week showed A-shares and Hong Kong stocks leading gains, while gold prices declined[5] - The stock-bond risk premium recorded 4.13%, down 0.3% from the previous week, indicating a high level of risk aversion in the market[10] Monetary Policy and Supply - The central bank's OMO reverse repos amounted to 1.316 trillion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 417 billion CNY, indicating a seasonal tightening of monetary supply[12] - MLF injections in January totaled 995 billion CNY, with a net injection of 216 billion CNY, reflecting a significant decrease in overall monetary supply[12] Domestic Economic Indicators - The real estate market showed a significant decline in transaction volumes, with new home sales in 30 major cities dropping to 149.5 million square meters, a decrease of 30% from the previous week[33] - Manufacturing capacity utilization rates have shown seasonal declines, with a notable drop in the chemical industry, indicating a synchronized decrease in both domestic and external demand[39] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to adjust risk asset allocations (stocks) and consider shorting safe-haven assets (government bonds) as the market stabilizes[3] - In commodities, a mixed outlook is suggested, with a focus on increasing positions in non-ferrous and chemical-related industrial products while shorting infrastructure-related black industrial products[3]