Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461)2024-02-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.38 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 620 million, up 4.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company’s sales volume in 2023 was 1.403 million kiloliters, with an average price of RMB 3,834 per ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in volume and 4.1% in price. This performance significantly outpaced the industry growth rate of 0.3% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023-2025 will be RMB 0.28, RMB 0.33, and RMB 0.36, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 4.1%, 16.3%, and 11.0% respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2023, the company’s revenue reached RMB 5.38 billion, with a net profit margin of 11.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, attributed mainly to changes in financial expenses [3][4]. - For Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of RMB 830 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, but incurred a net loss of RMB 20 million, compared to a profit of RMB 30 million in the same period last year [2][3]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s sales performance in Q4 2023 continued to show strength, with a sales volume of 253,000 kiloliters, despite a decline in average price due to increased promotional activities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes that the long-term trend of industry structural upgrades remains intact, and short-term price fluctuations should not be a concern. The company is expected to benefit from cost pressures easing in 2024 due to policy changes [3][4]. Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast and estimates the company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2023-2025 to be 28.3x, 24.4x, and 21.9x respectively, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [3][4].