Jinko Solar(SH:688223) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-02-25 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a target price of 9.86, down from a previous forecast of 18.95 [1][2]. Core Insights - The company achieved its expected performance for the full year 2023 and Q4, leading the industry in module shipments. The decline in per watt profitability in Q4 was attributed to falling module prices, but a stabilization and potential rebound in prices post-Chinese New Year is anticipated to support a recovery in profitability [2]. - The company is a pioneer in TOPCon battery module technology, and the adjustment of EPS forecasts for 2023-2025 reflects the impact of declining module prices. The revised EPS estimates are 0.76, 0.62, and 0.77 yuan respectively [2]. - The company shipped approximately 75GW of modules in 2023, a year-on-year increase of about 75%, regaining its position as the industry leader. Q4 shipments are expected to be around 26GW, with a significant portion being TOPCon modules [2]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders between 7.25 billion and 7.95 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 147% to 171%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be between 6.55 billion and 7.25 billion yuan, also showing significant growth [2]. - The financial performance metrics for the years 2021 to 2025 indicate a strong growth trajectory, with operating revenue projected to increase from 40.57 billion yuan in 2021 to 128.98 billion yuan in 2025 [1][2]. - The operating profit margin is expected to stabilize around 7.5% in 2023, with a projected net profit margin of 21.8% [1][2].