券商板块月报：券商板块2024年1月回顾及2月前瞻

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 over the next six months [29]. Core Insights - In January 2024, the brokerage index experienced its largest monthly decline in nearly 12 months, dropping by 5.29%, while outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.00 percentage point [4][7]. - The brokerage sector continued to decline, with individual stock losses widening, and the average P/B ratio fluctuating between 1.150 and 1.257 times [4][13]. - Key factors affecting the monthly operating performance of listed brokerages include a significant drop in equity values, strong performance in fixed income, and a notable decrease in margin financing balances [5][15]. Summary by Sections January 2024 Market Review - The brokerage index fell by 5.29% in January, marking the largest monthly decline in 12 months, with a trading volume of 463.89 billion yuan, up 17.42% month-on-month [4][7]. - Only 4 out of 43 listed brokerages saw stock price increases, with the top performers being Shichuang Securities (10.55%) and Everbright Securities (1.43%) [9]. - The average P/B ratio for the brokerage sector was 1.186 times at the end of January [13]. Factors Influencing January Performance - Equity indices continued to decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 6.27% and the ChiNext Index down 16.81% [16]. - The average daily trading volume for stocks was 738 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.75% month-on-month [18]. - The total margin financing balance fell to 1.5664 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.12%, marking the largest monthly decline in 12 months [21]. - The total amount of equity financing in January was 62.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.44% month-on-month, while bond underwriting amounts remained stable at 808.4 billion yuan [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - As of February 2024, the brokerage sector is expected to face both challenges and opportunities, particularly in equity self-operated businesses, which are seen as a core variable [26]. - The market is anticipated to experience a rebound following the Lunar New Year, with increased trading volumes and a potential recovery in equity indices [26]. - The overall operating performance of listed brokerages in February is likely to be the lowest point of the year, influenced by a significant drop in IPO and refinancing activities [27].