BTR NEW MATERIAL GROUP CO.(BJ:835185) Soochow Securities·2024-02-26 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.1 billion yuan for 2023, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.65 billion yuan, down 28.5% year-on-year. The fourth quarter net profit was 286 million yuan, a decrease of 70% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to investment losses and impairment provisions impacting profits by 200-300 million yuan [3][4] - The negative electrode segment's profitability is expected to stabilize, with a projected shipment of nearly 400,000 tons in 2023, an increase of 15%-20%. The company anticipates shipments to reach 450,000 tons in 2024, with a slight decline in profit per ton [3] - The positive electrode segment focuses on high-nickel ternary materials, with joint ventures with SKI and Panasonic. The company expects to maintain a profit of over 10,000 yuan per ton in 2024 [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue forecasts for 2023, 2024, and 2025 are 25.1 billion yuan, 22.3 billion yuan, and 24.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.65 billion yuan, 1.84 billion yuan, and 2.15 billion yuan [2][3] - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is projected to be 13x for 2023, 11.71x for 2024, and 10.02x for 2025. The target price is set at 33 yuan based on a 20x P/E for 2024 [3][4]