Shijia Photons(688313) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-02-27 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shijia Photonics (688313) with a target price of CNY 12.50 [1][2] Core Views - The company's performance aligns with expectations, with ongoing R&D in high-end products [1] - Shijia Photonics is advancing its overseas layout, which is expected to open new markets [1] - The company reported a net loss of CNY 0.47 billion in 2023, in line with previous expectations [1] - Forecasts for 2023-2025 predict net profits of -0.48/0.47/1.18 billion yuan, with EPS of -0.10/0.10/0.26 yuan [1] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is expected to be CNY 748 million, a decrease of 17.1% YoY [2] - Operating profit (EBIT) for 2023 is projected at -44 million yuan, a significant decline from previous years [2] - Net profit for 2023 is forecasted at -48 million yuan, with a recovery to 118 million yuan by 2025 [2] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 21.9% in 2023 to 26.6% by 2025 [2] R&D and Market Expansion - Shijia Photonics is heavily investing in R&D for high-end optical communication chips, including 400G/800G AWG chips and high-speed lasers [1] - The company completed the registration of overseas investment projects in January 2024, aiming to expand its product lines and production capacity in Thailand [1] - The overseas layout is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the AI industry [1] Financial Metrics - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 234.50 in 2023 to 22.84 by 2025 [2] - ROE is expected to improve from -4.1% in 2023 to 9.1% by 2025 [2] - The P/E ratio is forecasted to drop from 97.21 in 2024 to 38.40 by 2025 [2] Market Performance - The stock's 52-week price range is between CNY 7.11 and 20.85, with a market capitalization of CNY 4.533 billion [15] - The company's stock has underperformed relative to the index, with a 12-month absolute return of -13% [1]