煤炭行业周报：供给收缩预期再增强，看好煤价向上

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][30]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the supply contraction expectations have strengthened, leading to an optimistic outlook for coal prices. The domestic thermal coal market price has seen a slight increase, with the average price reaching 759 RMB/ton as of February 22, up by 2 RMB/ton from the previous week. The recovery of coal mines post-holiday is ongoing, but overall supply remains tight due to various factors including adverse weather conditions affecting transportation [6][11]. - For coking coal and coke, the market is experiencing weak performance due to limited downstream demand. As of February 22, the average price of coking coal was 1953 RMB/ton, down by 24 RMB/ton (1.21%) from the previous week. The coke market is also declining, with an average price of 2068 RMB/ton, down by 93 RMB/ton. The report highlights that the production recovery of coal mines is gradual, and the overall market sentiment remains cautious [7][25]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Overview 1.1 Coal Prices - As of February 21, the Qinhuangdao sea coal trading market reported a price index of 730.0 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.0 RMB/ton from the previous week. The comprehensive trading price for thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao port was 749.0 RMB/ton as of February 23, up by 5.0 RMB/ton, but down by 53.0 RMB/ton compared to the same period last year [11][21]. 1.2 Coal Inventory - As of February 19, the coal inventory at major ports was 52.806 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons (-0.76%). The inventory of coking coal at six major ports increased by approximately 13.61 million tons (6.60%) as of February 23 [21]. 1.3 Coal Freight Rates - As of February 25, the comprehensive index for coastal coal freight rates was 509.35 points, an increase of 6.15 points from the previous week. The freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Guangzhou was 831.62 points, up by 3.31 points (0.40%), while the rate to Shanghai decreased by 2.24 points (-0.25%) [23]. 2. Important Company Dynamics - China Shenhua reported a commodity coal production of 27.2 million tons in January 2024, up by 1.1% year-on-year, with sales of 38.5 million tons, an increase of 27.9%. Shaanxi Coal achieved a production of 13.907 million tons, up by 6.27% year-on-year. Other companies like Shanxi Coal International and China Coal Energy also reported varying production and sales figures, reflecting the overall industry dynamics [25].