符合预期，静待拐点

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance was slightly affected by multiple factors, including the impact of the Spring Festival and rising sunflower seed procurement costs, leading to a slight decline in revenue and profit [1] - The company focused on channel refinement projects, improving weak markets, breaking through in rural areas, and expanding new scenarios and channels, which increased the penetration rate of daily nuts and nut gift boxes [1] - E-commerce channels, such as Douyin and Pinduoduo, continued to break through, and overseas markets deepened their penetration in Southeast Asia, leading to a recovery in overall sales [1] - For 2024, revenue and profit are expected to recover steadily, with lower base effects for sunflower seed products and new products and channels expected to contribute to growth [1] - Nut products are expected to accelerate channel refinement, increase product distribution, and new products are expected to contribute incremental growth [1] - Sunflower seed costs are expected to decline, leading to a clearer trend of net profit margin recovery quarter by quarter [1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 6,806 million in 2023E to RMB 9,174 million in 2025E, with a CAGR of 15% [1] - Net profit is expected to increase from RMB 805 million in 2023E to RMB 1,302 million in 2025E, with a CAGR of 13% [1] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.59 in 2023E to RMB 2.57 in 2025E [1] - P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 21.3 in 2023E to 13.2 in 2025E, indicating potential undervaluation [1] - P/B ratio is projected to decline from 2.9 in 2023E to 2.1 in 2025E [1] Financial Ratios and Performance - Revenue growth rate is expected to rebound from -1.1% in 2023E to 17.2% in 2024E and 15.0% in 2025E [8] - Net profit margin is forecasted to recover from 11.9% in 2023E to 14.4% in 2024E and 14.2% in 2025E [8] - ROE is expected to improve from 14% in 2023E to 17% in 2024E and 16% in 2025E [1] - Debt-to-equity ratio is projected to decrease from 24.1% in 2023E to 17.4% in 2025E, indicating improved financial health [8] Cash Flow Analysis - Operating cash flow is expected to recover significantly from RMB 267 million in 2023E to RMB 1,306 million in 2025E [7] - Capital expenditures are projected to decrease from RMB -323 million in 2023E to RMB -213 million in 2025E [7] - Financing cash flow is expected to remain negative but improve from RMB -299 million in 2023E to RMB -54 million in 2025E [7] Market and Industry Context - The company's stock price as of February 27, 2024, was RMB 33.86, with a market capitalization of RMB 17,167 million [4] - The company's performance is in line with market expectations, and the "Buy" rating is maintained based on the expected recovery in revenue and profit growth [13]