存储专题系列二：存力需求与周期共振，SSD迎量价齐升

Industry Rating - The industry rating is Overweight [1] Core Views - SSD is gradually replacing HDD due to its superior performance and cost optimization, with SSD shipments surpassing HDD in 2020 and expected to reach cost parity with HDD by 2026 [2] - Data storage autonomy is a major trend in the context of the digital economy and AI development, with domestic storage manufacturers gaining technological strength and broad opportunities for localization [2] - China is catching up in the SSD industry chain, with breakthroughs in IDM/NAND Flash wafers, controller chips, and module manufacturing, led by companies like Yangtze Memory and Longsys [2] - Storage manufacturers are aggressively raising prices to improve profitability, with NAND Flash prices expected to rise by 15-20% in Q1 2024 [2] Market Trends - SSD market share is growing, with SSD shipments surpassing HDD in 2020 and expected to account for 25% of global storage capacity by 2025 [25][28] - NAND Flash market is dominated by US, Japanese, and South Korean companies, with the top 5 players holding a combined market share of 95.41% in 2022 [2] - eSSD is a key growth driver, with enterprise SSD demand expected to grow at a CAGR of 18% from 2022 to 2028, driven by data center and AI server needs [32][37] Technological Advancements - SSD technology is evolving, with advancements in NAND Flash architecture (SLC, MLC, TLC, QLC) and 3D-NAND technology, leading to higher storage densities and lower costs [13][14] - PCIe (NVMe) is becoming the mainstream interface for SSDs, with PCIe 5.0 expected to dominate the enterprise market by 2026 [21] - China's Yangtze Memory has achieved breakthroughs in 3D NAND technology, with its 232-layer QLC chip competing with international leaders [50] Competitive Landscape - Global SSD market is highly concentrated, with Samsung, SK Hynix, and Western Digital leading the enterprise SSD market, while Kingston dominates the consumer SSD market [54][51] - Chinese companies are gaining traction, with firms like Longsys, Netac, and Yangtze Memory making significant progress in the SSD industry chain [49][50] - Controller chip market is led by Taiwanese companies, but mainland Chinese companies like Goke Micro and InnoGrit are emerging as strong competitors [56] Price Trends - NAND Flash prices are rising, with contract prices expected to increase by 15-20% in Q1 2024, driven by production cuts and strong demand [65][66] - SSD prices have surged, with some models seeing price increases of over 60% since mid-2023, particularly in the PCIe 4.0 segment [63][64] Financial Performance - Global storage giants are recovering, with companies like SK Hynix returning to profitability in Q4 2023, driven by price increases and improved demand [69][70] - Chinese storage companies faced challenges in 2023, but many showed signs of recovery in Q4, with companies like Longsys and Goke Micro reporting improved financial performance [74][75]