2024财年中期业绩大致平稳；租金水平回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) with a revised target price of HKD 110.1, representing a potential upside of 41.2% from the current price of HKD 78.00 [1][2] Core Views - The company's 2024 interim results were stable, with a slight increase in total revenue by 0.4% YoY to HKD 27.5 billion, while core net profit declined by 5.9% to HKD 8.9 billion, in line with Bloomberg consensus [1] - Property development revenue fell by 23.5% YoY to HKD 3.87 billion due to a 60% decline in mainland project deliveries, partially offset by a 25% increase in Hong Kong property development revenue [1] - Rental income increased by 1.7% YoY to HKD 8.94 billion, with retail rental income growing by 3.5%, supported by the relaxation of travel restrictions and a recovery in tourism [1] - Hotel revenue surged by 48% YoY to HKD 2.76 billion, with operating profit turning positive at HKD 430 million compared to a loss of HKD 63 million in the previous year [1] - The company revised its full-year sales target downward to HKD 23 billion from HKD 33 billion due to delayed project launches, with seven projects scheduled for launch in the second half of the year [1] Financial Data Summary - Revenue for FY2024E is projected to grow by 14.2% YoY to HKD 81.33 billion, with core net profit expected to increase by 5.3% to HKD 25.15 billion [3] - Core EPS for FY2024E is forecasted at HKD 8.68, a 5.3% YoY increase, with a P/E ratio of 9.0x [3] - The company's net asset value per share is estimated at HKD 210.76 for FY2024E, with a P/B ratio of 0.37x [3] - Dividend yield for FY2024E is expected to be 5.6%, with a payout ratio of 50% [3] Property Development and Rental Performance - Hong Kong property development revenue increased by 25% YoY to HKD 3.61 billion, driven by project deliveries including Grand YOHO 2 and Wetland Season Bay 2 [1] - Mainland property development revenue declined by 60% YoY to HKD 1.59 billion, impacting overall development revenue [1] - Retail rental income is expected to continue growing in the second half of 2024, supported by the relaxation of travel restrictions and a recovery in tourism [1] Valuation and Target Price Adjustment - The target price was revised downward to HKD 110.1 from HKD 127.6, based on a 45% discount to the revised NAV estimate of HKD 200.21, primarily due to adjustments in office property valuations [2] - The revised target price reflects a 41.2% potential upside from the current price, supported by the company's strong mid-market property portfolio and recovery in rental income [2]