AMEC(SH:688012) Huachuang Securities·2024-02-29 16:00Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 203.3 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's performance and order growth remain strong, with significant progress in platform-based layout [1] - Revenue for 2023 reached 6.264 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 32.15%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.786 billion RMB, up 52.67% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2023, revenue was 2.222 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 30.97%, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 626 million RMB, up 66.14% year-on-year [1] - The etching equipment business continues to grow rapidly, with market share increasing and large orders from leading customers driving sustained high growth [2] - The company's CCP and ICP equipment are making rapid breakthroughs, covering etching processes across various technology nodes from 65nm to 5nm [2] - New product development is progressing well, with four new devices entering the market, three of which have received repeat orders [2] - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the growth in demand for etching equipment due to wafer fab expansion and accelerated substitution [2] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue: 6.264 billion RMB, up 32.15% year-on-year [1] - 2023 net profit attributable to the parent company: 1.786 billion RMB, up 52.67% year-on-year [1] - 2023 gross profit margin: 46.4%, net profit margin: 28.5% [2] - 2023 new orders: 8.36 billion RMB, up 32.3% year-on-year, with etching equipment orders up 60.1% to 6.95 billion RMB [2] - 2024-2025 revenue forecast: 8.395 billion RMB and 10.842 billion RMB, respectively [2] Market and Industry Context - The company's etching equipment is expected to play a more significant role in the localization of high-end storage and etching production lines [2] - The company's platform-based layout is opening up long-term growth opportunities, with new products such as LPCVD, ALD, EPI, and Bevel etching equipment expected to enter the market soon [2] - The company's MOCVD equipment for SiC/GaN power devices and Micro-LED is expected to enter the market in 2024 [2] Valuation and Forecast - The company's 2024 target price is set at 203.3 RMB, based on a 15x PS ratio [2] - 2024-2025 EPS forecast: 3.23 RMB and 4.23 RMB, respectively [2] - 2024-2025 P/E ratio forecast: 45x and 35x, respectively [2]