艾加莫德销售超预期

Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of $60 for US shares and HK$47 for Hong Kong shares [1][3][4] Core Views - Zai Lab's 4Q23 revenue of $65.83 million met expectations, with net loss of$95.43 million slightly exceeding forecasts due to higher R&D and SG&A expenses [1] - A major driver for future growth is the strong performance of Efgartigimod, which achieved $5.07 million in sales in 4Q23, a 3.7$70 million in 2024, a 40% increase from previous estimates, driven by expanded hospital coverage and new indications [1] - Zai Lab anticipates a revenue CAGR of over 50% from 2023 to 2028, supported by the approval of subcutaneous formulations for Efgartigimod in 2024 and 2025 [1] Financial Performance and Forecasts - 4Q23 gross margin was 61.7%, down 1.5 percentage points QoQ, primarily due to higher production costs for Efgartigimod [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024E and 2025E were raised by 7.5% and 3.1%, respectively, driven by higher expectations for Efgartigimod and upcoming drug approvals [1] - Net loss for 2024E and 2025E increased by 29% and 15%, respectively, due to updated financial assumptions [1] - Revenue is projected to grow from $390 million in 2024E to$983 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 52.5% from 2024E to 2026E [6] Key Catalysts for 2024 - Three drugs expected to gain approval: SUL-DUR, Efgartigimod subcutaneous (gMG indication), and Rotrectinib (ROS1+NSCLC) [1] - Four drugs to submit China NDA applications: Efgartigimod subcutaneous (CIDP indication), Adagrasib (second-line NSCLC), TIVDAK (second-line cervical cancer), and Optune (second-line NSCLC) [1] - Partner-related FDA reviews include tumor-treating fields for NSCLC (2H24), KarXT for schizophrenia (Sep 2024), and Efgartigimod for CIDP (Jun 2024) [1] - Key clinical data readouts include Optune for NSCLC brain metastasis (1Q24) and pancreatic cancer (4Q24), as well as Adagrasib for NSCLC (2H24) [1] Valuation and Market Data - Zai Lab's US shares currently trade at $20.8, with a 52-week range of$17.7-$41.8 and a market cap of$2.06 billion [3] - Hong Kong shares trade at HK$17.4, with a 52-week range of HK$14.1-HK$32.8 and a market cap of HK$17.22 billion [4] - The target price implies a potential upside of 188% for US shares and 170% for Hong Kong shares [3][4] Industry Context - Zai Lab is part of the biotech sector, with peers such as Hutchmed, BeiGene, and Innovent Biologics also receiving "Buy" ratings from SPDB International [12]