银锡龙头，涅槃重生

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 13.24 CNY based on a 15x PE for 2024 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the silver and tin resource sector in China, with expectations of revenue and profit recovery post the 2019 mining accident [2][12]. - The report anticipates significant growth in both silver and tin prices due to supply-demand dynamics and the company's production capacity improvements [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest silver producer in China, with a silver reserve market share of 14.2% and a tin reserve market share of 19.5% as of 2022 [2][26]. - The company has undergone a transformation, with its main income sources shifting towards silver and tin following the recovery from the silver mining accident [12][22]. Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The global tin market is expected to experience a supply-demand gap, leading to an upward adjustment in tin prices, with projections of a shortfall of 0.80 and 0.62 million tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively [3][4]. - Silver prices are anticipated to rebound due to low inventory levels and increased demand from the clean energy sector, particularly in photovoltaic applications [4][12]. Production Capacity and Growth - The company has several projects underway that are expected to enhance production capacity, including upgrades and expansions at key mining sites [4][5]. - Future production estimates indicate increases in output across various metals, including silver (207 tons), zinc (7.25 million tons), and lead (2.44 million tons) compared to 2022 levels [4][5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2023-2025 are projected at 37.52 billion CNY, 51.01 billion CNY, and 55.02 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 79.88%, 35.97%, and 7.84% respectively [5][15]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly, with projections of 9.96 billion CNY, 16.21 billion CNY, and 18.05 billion CNY for the same period, indicating growth rates of 472.94%, 62.71%, and 11.32% respectively [5][15].