Homa(002668) 国泰君安·2024-03-03 16:00Investment Rating and Core Views - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the company with a target price of 9.72 CNY, compared to the current price of 6.69 CNY [91] - The core view is that the company, as a leading refrigerator exporter, will benefit from the integration of TCL's white goods business, which is expected to improve scale and efficiency, leading to a revaluation of the company's market value [97] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue for 2023-2025 is projected to grow by +93%/+15%/+11%, with net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by +86%/+11%/+13% [108] - The company's valuation is based on a PE multiple of 12X for 2024, resulting in a target market capitalization of 10.51 billion CNY [111] - A DCF valuation suggests a higher equity value of 13.32 billion CNY, but the more conservative PE-based target price of 9.72 CNY is used [113][115] Business Overview and Strategy - The company has refocused on its core refrigerator business after divesting its fintech operations, with TCL taking control in 2021 and integrating its white goods assets [120] - The integration of TCL's white goods is expected to enhance the company's manufacturing efficiency and scale, particularly in the refrigerator segment [80] - The company plans to leverage TCL's brand and channel resources to strengthen its domestic market presence and expand its overseas market share [29] Market and Industry Analysis - The domestic refrigerator market is expected to remain stable, driven by product upgrades, with high-end refrigerators (priced above 7,000 CNY) accounting for 30.03% of sales in 2022, up 16 percentage points from 2018 [10] - The export market is projected to grow by +28% in 2023, with slower growth of +5%/+2% in 2024-2025, driven by recovery in demand and TCL's overseas channel expansion [107] - The company's export business is highly competitive, with a 19.7% market share in 2023, and it has established long-term relationships with over 250 global brands and retailers [76] Operational Efficiency and Profitability - The company's refrigerator business has maintained high profitability, with a net profit margin of 12.9% in 2022, ranking first among white goods companies [72] - Operational efficiency is supported by a strong manufacturing base, with 9 production facilities and 13 automated production lines, capable of producing 15 million units annually [75] - The company's cost control and streamlined product portfolio (130 SKUs) contribute to its competitive advantage in both domestic and export markets [75][76] Risks and Catalysts - Key catalysts include the expected recovery of 49% equity in the refrigerator subsidiary, which could double the company's net profit [97] - Risks include potential trade disputes, fluctuations in raw material prices, and the possibility of failing to complete the minority equity buyback by the 2025 deadline [53]