宏观经济周报：待机而动

Economic Overview - The average PMI for February remains low, with manufacturing, construction, and services PMI at 49.1%, 53.5%, and 51.0% respectively, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing and construction[27] - The comprehensive PMI for February is 50.9%, unchanged from the previous month, suggesting economic stability at a low level[27] Market Performance - In February, both stock and bond markets experienced significant gains, with the Wande All A Index rising by 2.4% and the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by 3.3 basis points[9][15] - The best-performing sectors in the stock market were TMT, leading the gains in the Sci-Tech and ChiNext indices[71] Interest Rate Dynamics - The yield curve has shown a notable narrowing of the term spread, with the 1-year and 5-year government bond yields rising by 1.3 and 1.4 basis points, while the 10-year and 30-year yields fell by 3.3 and 8.9 basis points respectively[9][34] - The spread between the 30-year and 10-year government bond yields has reached a historic low, indicating unusual market conditions[28] Economic Risks - Ongoing risks in the real estate sector, with continued low sales of commercial housing, may pose uncertainties for future economic recovery[13][21] - Potential risks include unexpected downturns in the real estate market, policy measures falling short of expectations, and unforeseen international disturbances[11][60] Future Outlook - The overall economic recovery remains fragile, particularly in the manufacturing sector, with limited potential for significant short-term stock market gains[28][47] - Strategies for the bond market may involve gradually entering positions as the yield curve steepens, given the current low levels of the term spread[28]