BUD APAC(HK:01876)2024-03-04 16:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for Budweiser Brewing Co APAC has been downgraded to "Neutral" [3][13]. Core Views - The report indicates that while revenue for Q4 2023 met expectations, overall performance was slightly below expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 5.8% and a net profit decrease of 6.7% [9][12]. - The company is experiencing a decline in sales volume in the Korean market, with market share estimated to have decreased by approximately 150 basis points [11][12]. - The report highlights a significant increase in average price per ton, contributing to improved gross profit margins, but also notes that profit margins have been impacted by tax fluctuations [12][13]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company achieved revenue of $6.856 billion, with a sales volume of 92.77 million hectoliters and an EBITDA of $2.023 billion [9][10]. - The fourth quarter alone saw revenue of $1.293 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, while sales volume increased by only 0.6% [9][10]. - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is revised to 0.63, 0.71, and 0.77 HKD respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment due to short-term consumption pressures [13][12]. Market Insights - In the China region, sales volume decreased by 3.1% while prices increased by 14.7%, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and product mix [10][11]. - The Indian market continues to show double-digit revenue growth, primarily driven by high-end and ultra-premium products [10][11]. - The Asia Pacific East region's profit margins have declined by 3.2 percentage points, with revenue growth hindered by competitive pressures and high base effects from the previous year [11][12].