MELCO INT'L DEV(00200) 东吴证券国际·2024-03-04 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2023 was slightly below expectations due to low win rates and impairment costs, with net revenue reaching USD 1.09 billion, recovering to 75.4% of the same period in 2019 [2][3] - The company achieved adjusted property EBITDA of USD 300 million in Q4 2023, which is 74.0% of Q4 2019 levels, primarily impacted by a low win rate and a USD 20 million impairment loss [2] - The company plans to enhance its non-gaming operations, expecting a slight increase in daily operating expenses due to new performances and service quality improvements [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2022A, total revenue was HKD 10,565.7 million, with a projected increase to HKD 35,167.7 million in 2024E and HKD 38,491.2 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.0% and 9.5% respectively [2][5] - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted to rise from HKD -362 million in 2022A to HKD 9,777.8 million in 2024E and HKD 11,234.2 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% in 2025E [2][5] - The current stock price corresponds to EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA ratios of 8.0, 6.4, and 5.6 for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [3] Operational Insights - The company's Macau properties generated total gaming revenue of USD 980 million in Q4 2023, recovering to 64.5% of Q4 2019 levels, with VIP and mass market revenues at 21.9% and 96.7% of 2019 levels respectively [3] - The company is introducing RFID gaming tables to improve operational efficiency and performance [3] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net income forecasts for 2023-2025 to HKD 30.05 billion, HKD 35.17 billion, and HKD 38.49 billion respectively [3] - Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be between USD 360 million and USD 375 million, focusing on enhancing non-gaming facilities [3]