公司深度报告：产品价差改善，公司有望受益

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Qixiang Tengda, with a target price range of 7.60-8.55 RMB based on a 40-45x P/E ratio for 2024 [31][48] Core Views - Qixiang Tengda benefits from improving product spreads and synergies with its controlling shareholder [43] - The company is a global leader in methyl ethyl ketone (MEK) and maleic anhydride production, with a 50% domestic market share in MEK [52] - Qixiang Tengda is expanding its carbon three (C3) industrial chain, with key projects including a 300,000 tons/year propylene oxide plant [7][44] Capacity and Production - Qixiang Tengda's production capacity for key products in 2022 includes 400,000 tons/year for maleic anhydride, 950,000 tons/year for isobutane, and 900,000 tons/year for butene [2] - The company's maleic anhydride production increased from 241,800 tons in 2021 to 346,300 tons in 2022, while MTBE production surged from 134,600 tons to 400,700 tons [2] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 34.166 billion RMB in 2023E to 40.426 billion RMB in 2025E, with net profit turning positive from -355 million RMB in 2023E to 1.572 billion RMB in 2025E [54] - Gross margin is expected to recover from 4.9% in 2023E to 10.7% in 2025E, driven by improving product spreads and lower raw material costs [54][117] Industry Trends - China's MTBE apparent consumption declined by 18.82% YoY to 9.7515 million tons in 2023, while isooctane consumption remained stable at around 10 million tons [4] - Maleic anhydride and MEK in China are largely self-sufficient, with 2023 apparent consumption of 930,000 tons (+16.17% YoY) and 190,000 tons (+17.69% YoY) respectively [113] Synergies and Strategic Advantages - Qixiang Tengda's controlling shareholder, Shan Energy New Materials, holds a 53.18% stake, enabling potential synergies in the petrochemical sector [11][48] - The company may benefit from synergies with Yulong Petrochemical, which is constructing a 20 million tons/year refining and 3 million tons/year ethylene project [29] Product Spreads and Profitability - Key product spreads improved significantly in 2023: MTBE-C4 spread increased by 12.18%, MEK-C4 spread by 58.36%, and maleic anhydride-C4 spread by 259.11% [86] - The company's gross margin improved from 8.12% in Q2 2023 to 11.50% in Q3 2023, driven by favorable product spreads [115]