《政府工作报告》解读：兼具灵活性的主动出击

Economic Growth - The economic growth target for 2024 is set at around 5%, reflecting a proactive and ambitious approach to economic development[6] - This target is slightly above the current endogenous potential growth rate, indicating a need for sustainable growth and structural optimization[8] - The government emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic policy consistency and proactive fiscal and monetary policies to achieve this growth[6] Fiscal Policy - The budget deficit rate is projected at 3%, with new special bonds amounting to 3.9 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations[11] - General public budget expenditure is expected to grow by approximately 4.0%, but adjusted figures suggest a year-on-year increase of about 7.8% for 2024[12] - The government plans to issue 1 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds, indicating a commitment to sustained fiscal expansion over several years[11] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will likely continue to align with fiscal policy, focusing on providing ample long-term liquidity and gradually reducing financing costs[28] - The central bank is expected to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate while implementing targeted interest rate cuts, including a predicted 50 basis points reduction in the reserve requirement ratio[31] Supply-Side Initiatives - The government aims to enhance new quality productivity and improve total factor productivity, moving away from traditional industrial growth models[32] - Key focus areas include optimizing supply chains, fostering emerging industries, and advancing digital economy innovations[32] Real Estate Market - The report emphasizes increasing the construction of affordable housing and improving the foundational systems for commercial housing[36] - It is anticipated that the sales area of commercial housing will decline by approximately 5% in 2024, with real estate development investment expected to decrease by about 7%[40] Infrastructure Investment - Infrastructure investment is expected to grow by around 10% year-on-year, with a focus on efficient regions and new infrastructure projects[41] - The government plans to direct investments towards high-efficiency areas to mitigate local government debt risks[41]