Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (2057.HK) [1][5] Core Views - ZTO Express is a leading player in the express delivery industry with a market share of 22.9%, significantly ahead of its closest competitor by 6.8 percentage points, indicating a strong market position [5] - The company is expected to achieve stable earnings growth, with a projected PE ratio of only 12 times for 2024, suggesting good investment value [5] - The inclusion of ZTO in the Hong Kong Stock Connect is anticipated to improve stock liquidity and catalyze a revaluation of its stock price [5] Financial Summary - Total shares outstanding: 824 million [2] - Circulating shares: 617 million [2] - Market price: HKD 165.4 [2] - Market capitalization: HKD 136.2 billion [2] - Revenue projections for 2023E to 2025E are HKD 41.19 billion, HKD 46.57 billion, and HKD 52.81 billion respectively, with growth rates of 16%, 13%, and 13% [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are HKD 9.16 billion, HKD 10.43 billion, and HKD 12.23 billion, with growth rates of 34%, 14%, and 17% respectively [4] - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be HKD 11.07, HKD 12.61, and HKD 14.79 for 2023E, 2024E, and 2025E respectively [4] Competitive Advantages - ZTO Express benefits from significant economies of scale, which reduce average unit costs and allow for competitive pricing [5] - The company has maintained a strong management capability, which has been crucial in stabilizing its franchise network and facilitating expansion [5] - ZTO's capital expenditures from 2016 to 2022 totaled HKD 40.7 billion, with substantial investments in infrastructure, ensuring it remains competitive in the industry [5]
中通纳入港股通，低估值龙头更具配置价值