Jiangshan Oupai(603208) 国泰君安·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" to the company with a target price of 35.23 CNY, down from a previous target of 35.76 CNY [2][11][20] Core Insights - The company's performance meets expectations, with significant profit improvement attributed to a reduction in credit impairment losses compared to the same period last year, alongside marketing reforms driving scale effects [11][20] - The company has maintained a high cash dividend payout ratio of approximately 80%, reflecting its commitment to shareholder returns [11][20] - Revenue for 2023 is projected to be 3.728 billion CNY, representing a 16.2% increase from the previous year, with a net profit forecast of 400 million CNY, recovering from a loss in 2022 [11][20] Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2021: 3,157 - 2022: 3,209 - 2023E: 3,728 - 2024E: 4,400 - 2025E: 5,104 [11][20] - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2021: 257 - 2022: -299 - 2023E: 400 - 2024E: 480 - 2025E: 564 [11][20] - EPS (CNY): - 2021: 1.45 - 2022: -1.68 - 2023E: 2.26 - 2024E: 2.71 - 2025E: 3.18 [11][20] Profitability and Valuation Metrics - Operating Profit Margin (%): - 2021: 10.1% - 2022: -7.7% - 2023E: 13.2% - 2024E: 13.3% - 2025E: 13.6% [11][20] - Return on Equity (ROE) (%): - 2021: 13.9% - 2022: -21.1% - 2023E: 26.8% - 2024E: 30.1% - 2025E: 33.1% [11][20] - Price-to-Earnings Ratio (PE): - 2023E: 11.59 - 2024E: 9.68 - 2025E: 8.24 [11][20] Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its product categories and diversifying its distribution channels, focusing on engineering projects and various sectors such as schools and hospitals to enhance market share [11][20] - The company aims to leverage category synergy to improve its market presence and is actively developing agency and distribution channels to extend its reach into the consumer market [11][20]