LI AUTO(LI) 华兴证券·2024-03-06 16:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (LI US) with a target price of US46.21 [1][2][4]. Core Insights - Li Auto's Q4 2023 performance showed significant growth, with GAAP/Non-GAAP net profit increasing by 2,102.1%/368.5% year-over-year, driven by high gross margins and the reversal of deferred tax asset impairment [3][4]. - The company is set to launch new models in March 2024, which is expected to boost sales and create a product matrix of four range-extended and four pure electric models by the end of 2024 [4][5]. - The report projects a strong delivery growth for 2024, with an estimated delivery volume of 726,249 vehicles, representing a 73% year-over-year increase in revenue [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, Li Auto delivered 131,805 vehicles, achieving revenue of RMB 41.73 billion, a year-over-year increase of 136.4% [4][9]. - The gross margin for Q4 2023 was reported at 23.5%, with a full-year gross margin of 22.2%, up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. - The report forecasts 2024 revenue to reach RMB 214.29 billion, with a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 17.68 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 46.2% [7][8]. Earnings Estimates - The report has revised the earnings estimates for Li Auto, projecting 2024 EPS at RMB 18.05, up from RMB 15.21, and 2025 EPS at RMB 27.35, up from RMB 21.43 [2][5]. - For 2026, the company is expected to deliver 1,426,734 vehicles, with revenue and Non-GAAP net profit projected at RMB 403.25 billion and RMB 39.41 billion, respectively [7][8]. Market Positioning - Li Auto is positioned to benefit from a strong product lineup and market demand, with management expecting stable monthly sales for new models Mega and L6 to reach 5,000 and 20,000 units, respectively [4][5]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that while Li Auto has a strong market position, it faces increasing competition from other manufacturers launching similar range-extended and electric vehicles [5][10].